Business & Economic
Forecasting Unit
Telephone: (03) 9905 2358
Fax: (03) 9905 5474
ABN: 12 377 614 012
http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/units/forecasting/
Forecasts of long-term
peak half-hourly
electricity demand for
South Australia
Professor Rob J Hyndman
B.Sc. (Hons), Ph.D., A.Stat.
Report for
Electricity Supply Industry Planning Council (South Australia)
22 May 2007
Forecasts of long-term peak half-hourly electricity demand for South Australia
Contents
Summary 3
1 Historical data 4
1.1 Half-hourly demand and temperature data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.2 Demographic and economic data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2 Semi-parametric demand model 9
3 Demand forecasting 11
3.1 Probability distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
3.2 Probability of exceedance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Monash University: Business & Economic Forecasting Unit 2
Forecasts of long-term peak half-hourly electricity demand for South Australia
Summary
The Electricity Supply Industry Planning Council (ESIPC) is required to prepare annual peak demand
forecasts for the South Australian region of the National Electricity Market (NEM). Peak electricity
demand in a given season is subject to a range of uncertainties, including underlying population
growth, changing technology, economic conditions, prevailing weather conditions (and the timing
of those conditions) as well as the general randomness inherent in individual usage.
This is the final report in a series on modelling and forecasting peak half-hourly electricity demand.
In ...