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Mutual Fund Cash Flows and Stock Market Performance*
During the decade of the 1990’s through the year 2001 there were some major shifts in the deployment of investment assets. Based on a variety of measures, mutual funds grew dramatically as vehicles for investing in portfolios of stock. Specifically net cash flows into equity funds grew from $13 billion in 1990 to $310 billion in the year 2000.1 During that same period the number of equity funds rose from 1,100 to 4,395, while the number of accounts in those funds increased from 22 million to 162 million. The cumulative effect of the new money injected into equity funds, together with reinvestment of dividends, plus the attendant stock price appreciation has produced a phenomenal growth in total net assets. The market value of those assets mushroomed from $239 billion in 1990 to $3,962 billion in 2000.
Granted that funds have become major players in equity markets, how important is their influence compared to other drivers of market performance? The investment press and business news media normally concentrate their attention on earnings growth, interest rate movements and other relevant financial and economic indicators. However, there is very little in the professional and academic investment literature comparing the impact of mutual fund cash flows to the aforementioned variables.
The purpose of this study is to provide some focus, comparison, and perspective on the importance of mutual fund flows. It presents evidence that mutual fund flows may be a very significant factor in explaining monthly-movements in stock market returns, and it provides some ...