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Since our last update, a number of interesting trends and factors caught our eye:
M&A Transaction Activity:
• The number and value of headline-grabbing, billion-dollar deals peaked at the end of June 2007. For the twelve months ending 6/30/2007, dealmakers racked up 290 deals with an aggregate value of $1.148 Trillion Dollars. Since that time, mega-deal activity has dropped.
• The number of M&A deals leveled off at the very beginning of 2007 showing 0% growth for the 12 months ending 1/30/2007, versus the 12 months ending 1/30/2006.
• Deal volume for the 12 months ending 9/30/2007 versus 9/30/2006 has dropped by 6.1%.
• The news from the middle market suggests that the credit crunch has not had an impact on private-company M&A. However, aggregate deal volume is down 6.1%. Middle-market and private deals represent over 70% of the volume. Something is causing friction within the mid-market and private segment.
• The September Duke University/CFO Business Outlook survey indicates that three-quarters of the CFOs surveyed expect M&A activity to slow. Of particular interest is the suddenness of this change in expectations. In the prior quarter’s survey, the majority of surveyed CFOs expected M&A to “stay strong through the remainder of 2007.”
Capital Markets:
• Equity markets have become much more volatile. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) is a “key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Since its introduction in 199 ...