Economic Indicator Forecast
Introduction
As mentioned on the last report on economic indicators, an economic indicator is a statistic about the economy. Economic indicators facilitate the analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance (Wikipedia, 2007). There are various reports put out with varying degrees of opinions on what the forecast for the next 12 months will look like. There is no right or wrong since no one can foresee the future. One never knows what could happen that would affect the economy. For the moment, the following are the reports and predictions for the team’s six economic indicators pertaining to the housing industry: real GDP, unemployment, inflation rate, personal income, retail sales, and housing starts.
Real GDP
A Federal Reserve press release dated January 31, 2007 states, “the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.” The Board understood this after current indicators have revealed a rather stronger economic growth, and several possible signs though home sales have dropped in the first month of 2007 by nearly a third from year-ago levels, buyers are being choosier, but are prepared to spend for what he or she desires (Hirsch, 2007). Centax Construction will keep a watchful eye on all indicators after a loss from continuing operations of $235 million. A confidence index is at its highest since June, a survey showed Thursday, a sign the housing market might begin to recover this year (Willis, 2007).
Bernanke in his February 14, 2007 testimony before the Committee on Banking and Urban Affairs, United States Senate, proclaimed the U.S. economy seems likely to expand at a modest pace in 2007 with gr ...